The Modi Cult Is Far From Finished
Jawhar Sircar
(The Wire, 12 June 2021)
Narendra
Modi is surely passing through his worst patch ever as prime minister, but
then, there is no reason to view this seven years’ ‘itch’ of the people as the
beginning of his end. The sudden fury against his regime’s disastrous handling
of COVID-19 was sparked off in the national capital and other urban pockets of
power by shocking visuals of endless funeral pyres and by horror stories of
‘people we know’ gasping to death for want of oxygen. What was so utterly preposterous
was that COVID-19 did not give any consideration to status, connections and
other visible capabilities of the urban elite to beat all raps.
Surprisingly,
even the local, domesticated media could not resist the temptation to portray
the truth — much to the dismay of its ringmasters — while the international
media shattered India’s image and Modi’s standing in a matter
of days. The prime minister’s so-tiring 109 foreign trips to 60 countries and
his mandatory bearhugs proved quite ineffectual — as did the upfront declared
cost of Rs 518 crore spent on them. While the much-ignored badlands of the
Gangetic belt dumped corpses into the holy river, or buried them thin under its
sands, explosive anger cut through different sections across the
well-cultivated political divide.
Yet, in
January this year, India Today’s Mood of the Nation survey revealed that
74% of the respondents rated Modi’s performance as ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’, a
small dip from his 78% rating in August 2020. The report “reiterated the
phenomenal popularity rating for a leader now in his seventh year in power.”
This was, of course, when India was on a hubris-induced high, imagining that it
had conquered COVID-19 under the “great leader’s guidance”. Things changed
considerably when the second wave struck, ripping off Modi’s
Potemkinian-painted cardboard cutouts that camouflaged reality.
His latest
popularity index, as calculated by the much-quoted US data intelligence company
Morning Consult, shows a fall to the lowest point ever. People who ‘approved’
Modi fell from 82% exactly one year ago to 63% now, while those who
specifically disapproved his policies rose from a mere 16% to 30%. But these
surveys still affirm that he is way above the 31.1% of popular vote with which
he swept to power in 2014 and also far higher than 37.4% he cornered in the
2019 polls — whichever be the method of extrapolation one may seek to use.
While
watching the infallible leader being roasted may have provided a dash of
delicious schadenfreude — it does precious little to challenge his fiercely
entrenched, flush-funded and ruthlessly professional electoral machine.
Toughened politicians who have got away with murder (figuratively, till now)
are used to the temporary tantrums of some voters. In any case, the peeling off
appears to be restricted to the outer layers of the support base and were
mostly add-ons to Modi’s fan club from 2014 or thereafter.
The Hindu
Rasthra is, however, determined to not allow such aberrations to feed fantasies
like the replacement of Modi. A senior well-read editor has, in fact, warned
the leader against conspirators in his inner circle and others who have let him
down and thus need to be purged forthwith. The regime’s propaganda wing has
taken up even more belligerent positions and its artillery is bombarding the
media, both mainstream and social, after just a small daze-induced pause.
Trolls are also back in action clumsily bludgeoning their enemies in the
filthiest of language, while the opportunist majority in media are clicking
their heels in salute to the powers that be, and to the deadly chaebols that
now back them quite openly.
Frankly,
the only refreshing breeze comes from the corridors of courts, once some
powerful entrenched judges who were enthralled by the regime retired. But then,
seven years in power is also a long time for the regime to foist many judges of
choice to critically important courts that determine the fate of this
beleaguered democracy. This is so clear from certain shocking decisions of a
few high courts, but then, we are also blessed with some really outstanding
judges everywhere.
The Supreme Court’s
flexing of its muscles and its remarkable boldness in
compelling a chronically misleading and inept government to declare free
immunisation of all adults will go into the annals of India’s history with
great favour. The other welcome development is that the regime has been
trounced in three of the four major states where assembly elections were held.
But, then, the results in Tamil Nadu and Assam were fairly predictable, while
Kerala’s was a morale-booster — but then, the contest was never with the
Bharatiya Janata Party. It was only in West Bengal that the verdict against
Modi was astoundingly clear and really invigorated demoralised secular
democratic forces all over the country.
The angst
against Modi may or may not, however, last beyond the second wave of COVID-19
that, mercifully, appears to be waning. It is quite misleading to read too much in
the RSS supremo’s recent criticism of Modi’s handling, as all he did was to
push a few cadmium bars into the atomic reactor to absorb some of the extra
combustion building up within. The talk of bringing in Nitin Gadkari as the
‘good Sanghi’ is now a favourite pastime of the marginalised Lutyens class and
a section of slighted Maharashtrians. Let us not ignore the fact that Modi has
the support of the biggest corporates — some of whom have prospered beyond
their imagination, during his regime.
Relations
between the BJP’s Wehrmacht and big capital, especially from Gujarat, are much
too deep to be ignored by the RSS and the BJP, especially after Modi has raised
the bar of election costs. Post-Modi elections are too incredibly expensive to
depend on small-time shopkeepers anymore. The Centre for Media Studies (CMS) estimated that
the ‘visible’ expenditure on the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was an incredible Rs
60,000 crore. It was, shockingly, the costliest election in the world and its
spending was more than double of the 2014 polls.
CMS
calibrated the BJP’s outlay was close to Rs 27,000 crore, i.e. 45% of all and
this worked out to investing Rs 89 crore for each of its 303 victorious
candidates. In contrast, the latest declaration of the Election Commission,
based on figures of its opaque-most electoral bond scheme, is that in 2019, the
BJP received just Rs 750
crore in donations from companies and individuals. This is
still more than five times what the Congress garnered, which was Rs 139 crore.
One reason why Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress was so badly battered in
Bengal in the 2019 polls could be that it could manage to get some miserable Rs
8 crore in all.
While the
mainstream of Indian business is still quite shattered, from shocks delivered both
before and after COVID-19, those who prosper from privatisation, favourable
policies, large infrastructure projects and rich mining tracts will surely
continue to finance a leader who has done so much. It also explains why the BJP
need not dirty its hand with petty ‘receipts’ like many other parties. This
centralised funding has also made it is eminently possible to clip the powers
of its own ministers, regional leaders and local satraps and decimate any
possible rival to Modi.
When one
hears only “Modi, Modi” across the landscape, it is time to admit that he
matters as much in the party’s economics as he does in its politics. Misgivings
if any in the RSS’s headquarters or those nursed by old-timers would all have
to gulped — with liquids of their choice. And left-liberals would do well to
also realise that Modi is simply too entrenched and too powerful to be wished
away with tweets, memes and self-congratulatory articles.
We may as
well confess that Modi has actually merged political populism with the old
Indian guruvadi tradition
rather dextrously. Unlike Abrahamic religions that appoint local pastors,
rabbis or maulanas to
hold the flock together and to comfort any troubled believer, Indic religions
do not usually provide for them. Hindu ritual practitioners and temple purohits
have their duties precisely cut out for them, and counselling is not in their
charter. This craving is left to ‘gurus’ to handle and the successful ones hold
immense powers over their followers.
The guru
is god on Earth — even when he is a corporate magnate like Baba Ramdev or is
quite scandalous like Asaram Bapu or Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh. The latter’s net
worth is some Rs 1,500 crore and in 2017, when he was arrested for rape, 41
lives were lost in the riots that followed. Over 500 people had to be arrested
but several lakhs still swear that he is an unadulterated god. We would do well
to realise that Modi assiduously cultivated millions of bhakts and
has created a large class of blind followers which no other prime minister ever
had.
Though
Christian Evangelists did try to appropriate Trump and Erdogan works through a
besotted Muslim Ulema, none had the benefit of a deep-rooted, millennia-old
socio-religious tradition waiting to be exploited. They are a product of the
adroit grafting of traditional guruvad with modern mass
politics, that was possible to such unique levels only in India. We can
elaborate on this on a later occasion. Liberals had, indeed, read the series of
electoral signals in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections quite
erroneously and had started nursing false hopes of defeating Modi. They may
recall the stunning shock they received when mind-boggling numbers rose to
demonstrate their guru-bhakti at the hustings. It would, thus, take many more
blunders like COVID-19 mismanagement to break the magical spell over die-hard
bhakts, and millions of Indians would never abandon their unshakable and
genetically-prompted faith in the infallible guru.
Popular
frustration may surely be reflected intermittently in some forthcoming bypolls,
but that does not ensure radical change. None in the opposition can hold a
candle to Modi, in his mesmerising oratory skills or in electoral strategies.
There is, sadly, no national-level opposition leader, not one, to challenge
him. Several non-BJP regional leaders have sworn their allegiance to him and
the few chief ministers who are opposed to him are quite content to lord it
within their own fiefdoms.
Good
examples are Captain Amarinder, Pinarayi Vijayan and Uddhav Thackeray. Maybe,
an aggressive street-fighter like Mamata may decide to challenge Modi on the
national stage, despite limitations of language, elocution and resources. Which
is why she is kept pinned down to her state by a series of pre-planned attacks
and has to fight endless battles to survive even after her massive popular
mandate.
The next
round in India will be fought in an Uttar Pradesh that has been brutalised by
Yogi Adityanath. Its elections are in February, but no serious unified
opposition to the BJP is noticeable, but one can keep hoping. Internal
dissensions within the BJP are said to be surfacing and the Samajwadi Party’s
performance in this year’s panchayat polls is commendable. If one believes in
Harold Wilson’s earthy wisdom that “one week is a lot of time in politics”,
well, 34 weeks is then quite an ocean to cross. Besides, agitating farmers are
still on the boil and one never knows what’s next. The citizenship law is still
a burning fuse.
These
insurmountable difficulties notwithstanding, when people united and are
determined to safeguard their values, they can move mountains. We just need to
recap the manner in which Mamata Banerjee and Bengal challenged the tsunami of
money and Central police power and shattered the cast-in-stone national media
narrative — financed by the ruthless duo. Never before did a historic 48% of
the electorate coalesce, in a notoriously argumentative and quarrelsome state,
to throw Modi out. If we include the anti-BJP votes that the Left and Congress
garnered, it means a whopping 56% of Bengal united to keep the BJP out.
It is a
very recent lesson worth remembering and it can help us transcend the gloom
brought in by other irrefutable facts. If we look back further at history we
will see that Indira Gandhi was also in a similar invincible position in 1977 —
when the people of India decided to teach her a lesson. Opposition parties had
united, unlike now, but not very effectively and since the Emergency was still
in force, Indira played skittles with them.
One
remembers every frustrating day during those months, as a participant-observer
who was caught between diametrically opposing pulls — that of a former student
activist till July of 1975 and of an IAS officer coopted into the establishment
thereafter. As a junior magistrate in Burdwan and an assistant returning
officer, one saw it all at close quarters. All hopes for the restoration of
democracy vanished when we saw how pitiably disorientated was the rag-tag band
of opposition politicians who were simply no match for the machinery they
confronted. Indira’s party was far better organised, so well-equipped, lavishly
funded and, above all, ruthless.
This is
then that history and the people of India stepped in — to roll the dice. But,
can we really demand or pray for an encore?
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