The importance of the Gujarat polls
By Jawhar Sircar
(Published in ‘The
Telegraph’ on 13.12.2017)
December
18 will surely be an interesting day. Millions in India and abroad would love
to know how Gujarat actually voted after displaying the first signs of
dissonance in over one-and-a-half decades. The Bharatiya Janata Party and its
well-rewarded journalists have started taunting liberals and secular forces -
they have been branded 'sickular', a phrase that itself is rather sick - to
'wait for the results'. The liberals, on the other hand, are busy praying, or
circulating videos of empty chairs at Narendra Modi's election rallies as
evidence that his days are numbered. But except dreamers, few really expect the
well-oiled and allegedly State-supported machinery of winning elections to
capitulate easily. The Opposition does not even have a name for the possible
chief minister. But then, Gujarat means a lot more than just a jackpot on the
first hit.
When
the ruling party took the unprecedented step of postponing the winter session
of Parliament for the first time in our memory so that the prime minister and
his cabinet colleagues could fight just one state election with all their
might, it hinted at panic. The leader, who has gloated after each victory and
has never displayed the magnanimity that keeps the Westminster system ticking,
is worried. This in itself is a major victory. When cracks appear on the
invincibility that is flaunted by absolutist regimes that thrive within the
democratic process, they signify that democracy is finally retaliating. The
very fact that Gujarat 2017 has managed to galvanize so many demoralized
liberals after three-and-a-half long years is an achievement by itself. They
had lost interest in the elections post-2014. Even the last one in Uttar
Pradesh had been left to the press and poll pundits to titillate us with
fanciful analyses. But since Modi swept the polls in UP by convincing the poor
that he had crushed the corrupt rich with his swashbuckling demonetization,
some very significant developments have shaken India. The first is the
bombshell by the Reserve Bank of India that demonetization had, in effect,
failed after much theatricality and avoidable pain. Then the growth figures
nosedived for the first time in years. This was followed by the terrible mess
that the goods and services tax created in which everyone was affected.
Besides, there was no sign of employment on a mass scale that the messiah had
promised.
In
September, the spell of mesmerizing demagoguery was broken and India found its
lost voice back after three years. Suddenly, large territories in the social
media that had been captured by trolls and delirious hero-worshippers were
liberated. Even the loyal mainstream media started making interesting noises.
Gujarat is critical as it is the first poll after these multiple
disappointments have become public.
Surprisingly,
Gujarat also succeeded in shaking off the Congress's inertia. It fought tooth
and nail to ensure Ahmed Patel's Rajya Sabha seat. Then Rahul Gandhi jumped
into the elections with unusual gusto. He appears to be getting his act
together - finally - and has taken Gujarat seriously to legitimize his
political elevation. The party's seriousness is evident in its new social
engineering with Patidars and the backward classes, however obnoxious such
electoral strategies may be.
None
disputes the BJP's or anyone else's claim to power and democrats actually
celebrate changes in regimes that take place through bona fide processes.
Incidentally, Atal Bihari Vajpayee remains one of India's favourite prime
ministers. He upheld some of the highest traditions of plurality and tolerance
even at the cost of annoying his own partymen. And so did Jawaharlal Nehru
during India's formative years. The once outlawed Left never tampered with the
basic framework of the Constitution when it came to power.
But
the electoral victory in 2014 brought in unprecedented threats to the
constitutionally sanctioned principles of secularism and plurality for the
first time in the history of independent India. Hatred is now sanctified by the
mainstream and has become so respectable that one fears that even serious
chemotherapy in the future may not be able to control its devastating spread.
Since it is inconceivable that those who constitute the chief minority
community in the country can ever be bludgeoned into submission, provoking them
is bound to lead to counter-attacks. This is a strategy for inviting an endless
subterranean civil war of the middle-eastern variety. Ceaseless strife suits
killers and fanatics on both sides.
Lastly,
Gujarat is important also because it is the crucible of the 'Hindus-only'
model. Someday or the other, the battle would have to be fought there. After
Babri Masjid and its aftermath had almost settled down and India began
reconciling itself to the Dawood Ibrahims that had been created, Godhra broke a
new dam of hatred. The scalding heat that long years of stoking generated -
from L.K. Advani's provocative rath yatra to the demolition of the Babri Masjid
and the 1992-93 riots - found its volcano in Godhra and its murderous trail.
But to harness the whole into votes required the genius of one Machiavelli. To
enter his den, rip apart his much-touted 'Gujarat model', which produces
favourable numbers by facilitating the enrichment of big capital, and to get
him to worry so much is a great victory in itself. This had been unimaginable
in the last few years. Liberals and democrats can celebrate whatever gains the
EVMs bestow for the struggle to restore India is just beginning.
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